Divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning

Abstract Scenario planning has emerged as a widely used process for resource management in situations of consequential, irreducible uncertainty. Because it explicitly incorporates uncertainty, scenario is regularly employed climate change adaptation. An early and essential step developing scenarios identifying “climate futures”—descriptions the physical attributes plausible future climates that could occur at specific place time. Divergent futures describe broadest possible range conditions support information needs decision makers, including understanding spectrum potential responses to change, strategies robust range, avoiding highly consequential surprises, averting maladaptation. Here, we discuss three approaches generating futures: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)-ensemble, quadrant-average, an individual-projection approach. All are designed capture relevant but they differ utility different applications, complexity, effort required implement. Using application from Big Bend National Park example numerous similar efforts develop Service applications over past decade, compare these approaches, focusing on their ability among-projection divergence during early-, mid-, late-twenty-first century periods align with near-, long-term efforts. The quadrant-average approach especially captured broader than RCP-ensemble approach, particularly near term. Therefore, supports makers seeking understand characterization conditions. We tradeoffs associated highlight suitable applications.